Research
Research Agenda
Power, Technology, and Resources in International Order
Innovation capacity and resource conflicts are pivotal factors of power and order in the international system. Hence, they constitute ACGO's research focus. ACGO examines how global order changes under conditions of technological disruption, (geo-)strategic rivalry, and institutional erosion, and under what premises cooperative forms of regulation emerge, remain stable, or fail.
The analytical focus lies on the political, institutional, and strategic factors that shape national positions, negotiation strategies, and willingness to implement, examining how these factors influence cooperation, blockade, or escalation under conditions of increasing multipolarization. The aim is not primarily to discuss power shifts due to technology and resource policy in normative terms, but rather to explain them systematically and make them empirically measurable.
In this respect, ACGO's work combines two closely interlinked strands of research:
(1) Disruptive technologies, military innovation, and international order
This strand examines how disruptive technologies (e.g., autonomy in weapons systems, AI-enabled military applications, emerging physical/bio-chemical processes, and other technological breakthroughs reshape power asymmetries, deterrence logics, and escalation dynamics. Particular attention is given to the acceleration of decision cycles, the opacity of complex technological systems, the delegation of lethal decision-making, and uncertainty regarding capabilities and intentions.
Building on this, ACGO investigates which regulatory approaches—from definitional and use restrictions to legal standards, transparency and confidence-building measures, and export or technology controls—may be realistic, verifiable, and effective under different geopolitical conditions.
Research focus
- Multilateral arms control negotiations and their institutional evolution
- Determinants and predictors of national state positions
- Security challenges posed by emerging and disruptive technologies
- Arms export controls and dual-use governance
- Building and analysing datasets on defence expenditures with a focus on R&D funding
(2) Critical resources, supply chains, and multipolarity
The second strand examines the role of strategic raw materials, such as rare earths and other critical metals, as structural power resources in the international system. Resources and material factors have always been considered important indicators of a state's power in security policy research. Thus, the research unit asks how dependencies in global value chains, industrial and export policies, resource nationalism, and extraction conflicts contribute to shifts in geopolitical power relations.
A particular focus is placed on the geopolitical impact assessment of commodity concentration, the resilience of security-relevant supply chains, and the political instrumentalization of strategic resources in power struggles.
Research focus
- Multilateralization in resource and security politics
- Critical resources and security dynamics (especially rare earths)
- Power projection in the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific
- Strategic developments in the Arctic
- Proliferation dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia
Analytical Approach and Methods
Methodologically, ACGO combines theory-driven quantitative text and data analysis and explorative case studies with comparative designs. A central component is the systematic operationalization of national positions in international forums—based on negotiation statements, voting behaviour, and policy documents—and linking them to explanatory variables from domestic and international politics.
Following this approach, ACGO generates datasets and analyses to enable scenario analyses and support strategic forecast by identifying coalition potential, lock-in effects and red lines in national positioning, or realistic compromise corridors in international negotiations.
The added value of SCGO lies in integrating the data-generating integration of international order, technology and resources into a coherent explanatory framework. Hence, the research unit develops analytical models and measurement concepts to explain why states choose a specific foreign policy.
The results are translated into policy-relevant knowledge for political and security practitioners, including evidence-based assessments of stability and escalation risks, analytical contributions to regulatory debates, and strategies for strengthening resilience and confidence-building in competitive security environments.